Evaluating the Effect of School Closures on Societal Transmission of Covid-19: Evidence from Lower Secondary School Closures in Sweden

Abstract

In lightoftheCovid-19pandemic,oneofthemostcommoninterventions used bycountrieswastoshutdownschoolsinthehopeofmitigatingvirus transmission. However,theeffectivenessofschoolclosuresstilllacks consensus intheliteratureduetotheseeminglydifficulttaskofestimating the causaleffectofclosingschools.Thispapercontributestotheliterature byprovidingbothempiricalevidenceoftheeffectofschoolclosuresand methodologicalguidancetoisolatetheeffectofschoolclosures.Weexploit variationsinschoolclosuresacrossmunicipalitiesbyutilizinganovel dataset onSwedishlowersecondaryschoolclosurestoidentifythecausal effect usingasyntheticcontrolmethod.Wefindevidencethatclosing schoolshadasmallandsignificanteffectonthemunicipaltransmission of Covid-19.Inaddition,weshowthatonlyholdingallstudentsathome simultaneouslyyieldedmitigatingeffectsonthetransmission.