GUPEA

Recent Submissions

• A SHARED CRISIS OR ASYMMETRIC OUTCOMES? A Quantitative Analysis of Inflation Dynamics in the European Union Following Russia´s Invasion of Ukraine

  (2026-02-10) Johansson, Emma; Göteborgs universitet/Statsvetenskapliga institutionen; University of Gothenburg/Department of Political Science

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  The sharp increase in inflation across the European Union following Russia´s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered an economic challenge. While the energy price shock affected all EU member states, differences in pre-existing dependence on Russian gas may have led to asymmetric inflation outcomes. Previous research has focused on the role of energy intensity and economic structure in explaining inflation differentials, however less attention has been paid to geopolitical energy dependence. This thesis therefore examines whether EU member states with higher dependence on Russian gas experienced relatively stronger inflationary effects following the invasion. Building on the theory of cost-push inflation, it is assumed that reliance on Russian gas increased vulnerability to supply disruptions and price uncertainty, thereby amplifying inflationary effects. The analysis applies a quantitative differences-in-differences design using monthly Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data combined with annual data on gas imports and gas consumption for all 27 EU member states during 2021—2023, showing stronger associations in gas-dependent countries. These findings remain robust when controlling for energy intensity and industrial share and the thesis concludes by discussing implications and direction for future research.

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• Harmless Us, Dangerous Them. Securitization in Authoritarian Populist Discourse on Social Media

  (2026-02-10) Salma, Bouchafra

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  Image-centered social media platforms have become powerful networks for disseminating visual securitization. They have surpassed traditional media by providing non-state actors, such as authoritarian populist parties, with unprecedented opportunities to act as central securitizing forces. This dissertation investigates how these political actors use visuals and digital platforms to construct and spread fear, threat, and (in)security. The thesis uses Securitization theory and Critical Discourse Analysis, takes a comparative approach, and follows qualitative methods. It draws on three empirical studies: these explore features of authoritarian populist actors’ visual securitizing discourse, assess the impact of national context on its construction, and compare its traits across three digital platforms. The material consists of datasets from social media spanning different electoral periods. The studies show that authoritarian populist parties use both verbal and visual modes to initiate securitization. The core discourse remains consistent across cases. Its expression, however, depends on socio-political environments and digital infrastructures that shape its production, circulation, and consumption. Overall, this work offers a comprehensive understanding of the securitizing discourse of authoritarian populist parties on social media and highlights its significant political and social implications, from normalizing crisis rhetoric to intensifying social divisions and weakening democratic pluralism.

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• DEBATTEN OM DEN HÖGA REPRESENTANTEN I BOSNIEN OCH HERCEGOVINA En kvalitativ argumentationsanalys kring den Höga representanten i Bosnien och Hercegovina

  (2026-02-09) Argentzell, Isac; Göteborgs universitet/Statsvetenskapliga institutionen; University of Gothenburg/Department of Political Science

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  The aim of this thesis is to investigate the evolution of the debate surrounding the Office of the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina (OHR) in the light of the country’s recently granted candidate status to the EU, when asking how has the debate about OHR’s existence developed in the UN Security Council since Bosnia and Herzegovina gained canidate status to the EU? The thesis is investigating the debate within the timeframe of year 2014 to 2025. This study is using a qualitative argumentation analysis to compare the rhetoric before and after Bosnia and Herzegovina gained candidate status to the EU. The thesis is using the theory of Normative Power Europe (NPE) to understand the OHR as an instrument for the diffusion of European norms and as an actor behind implementing conditionality in Bosnia and Herzegovina, subsequently influencing the debate. The analysis shows a transformation in the debate around the OHR. The debate has become more centred around the individual High Representative when comparing the year 2014 with the years of 2022, 2024 and 2025. The critics of the OHR have increased their criticism towards the legitimacy of the OHR and the focus on arguments surrounding sovereignty issues have increased.

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• Analyzing Poverty Dynamics through Time Series: A Wavelet Transform Approach

  (2026-02-09) Solska, Klaudia; Göteborgs universitet/Institutionen för data- och informationsteknik; University of Gothenburg/Department of Computer Science and Engineering

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  Reducing global poverty is a central goal of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), requiring timely, high-resolution data to monitor socioeconomic changesespecially in low- and middle-income countries where traditional survey data is sparse. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) and Earth observation (EO) data have enabled new approaches to poverty estimation. However, many existing models rely on aggregated annual or multi-year imagery, overlooking intra-annual variation that is particularly relevant in agriculturally driven economies. This study explores the potential of integrating intra-annual vegetation dynamics captured through Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with annual multi-spectral data to enhance poverty prediction. An unsupervised approach using wavelet transforms is proposed to summarize temporal NDVI signals, allowing models to retain essential seasonal patterns while reducing dimensionality and noise. Experiments were conducted in a simulated environment using nighttime light intensity as a proxy for wealth, and further evaluated against the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) dataset across Africa. The results show that incorporating selected wavelet-derived NDVI features significantly improves model accuracy over baseline methods, even in the presence of missing data. These findings highlight the critical role of intra-annual temporal information and demonstrate the value of wavelet-based summarization for scalable, robust poverty estimation using satellite imagery

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• Formalising a 1-categorical zigzag construction - A method for constructing the path spaces of pushouts formalised in the Lean proof assistant

  (2026-02-09) Peng, Edwin; Göteborgs universitet/Institutionen för data- och informationsteknik; University of Gothenburg/Department of Computer Science and Engineering

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  In homotopy type theory, which provides a synthetic foundation for mathematics by unifying type theory and homotopy theory, pushouts are fundamental for gluing spaces together. The path spaces of pushouts, which not only give insight to the truncation levels of a pushout, contain interesting structure. A construction of this space, the zigzag construction, has been formulated by Wärn and such a construction is well-suited for a formalisation effort in a proof assistant such as Lean to verify its correctness and provide further insight into its components. This thesis presents a 1-categorical zigzag construction based on Wärn’s formulation in (∞,1)-categories by constructing a number of 2-categorical pullbacks and showing a number of adjunctions between them. Some elementary category-theoretic results missing in Mathlib4, the main library for mathematics in Lean, are also formalised, notably the infrastructure around sequential colimits and special cases of 2-categorical limits and their properties.

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