What Can We Know about the Effects of Democracy Using Cross-National Data?

Abstract

More than 1100 studies have been published that examine the effects of democracy using cross-national data since 2000. This research note examines whether these analyses have sufficient statistical power to detect an effect of democracy. Using Monte Carlo simulation and examining consensus effects previously reported in the literature, it finds that studies lack power to detect anything but strong, non-dynamic, and homogeneous effects of democracy when examining countries over time.