Mapping Functional Cooling Structures for Climate Adaptation: Spatial Connectivity and Radiation Environments under Present and Future Climate Conditions in Frölunda – Tynnered, Gothenburg

Abstract

This thesis develops a spatial framework for identifying and analysing functional urban cooling structures based on radiation conditions and spatial connectivity in Frölunda–Tynnered, Gothenburg. Radiation-based microclimate modelling was conducted using the UMEP framework, with mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) used as the primary indicator of radiative heat exposure. Model outputs were integrated with GIS-based connectivity and accessibility analysis to evaluate cooling functionality under present and future climate and urban morphology scenarios, including RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results demonstrate that cooling functionality is unevenly distributed and strongly dependent on vegetation structure, shading conditions, urban morphology, and spatial continuity. Larger and connected vegetated environments form the most effective cooling structures, while densely built and impervious areas exhibit elevated radiative heat exposure and fragmented cooling potential. Future climate scenarios reduce the extent and continuity of thermally favourable environments, particularly under heatwave and RCP 8.5 conditions. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, however, larger cooling structures remain comparatively resilient and future urban morphology results in only minor reductions in overall cooling functionality. The analysis further identifies spatial cooling deficit areas where high heat exposure coincides with weak cooling functionality, particularly within densely built and highly impervious urban environments. The thesis demonstrates how radiation-based modelling and spatial connectivity analysis can provide planning-relevant evidence for identifying vulnerable urban environments and supporting heat-sensitive urban development and climate adaptation planning.