Operational and Economic Feasibility of Electric Trucks with High-Power Charging for Heavy-Duty Fleets in Sweden

Abstract

Battery Electric Trucks (BETs) are a growing clean tech for the decarbonization of freight transport as a sustainable alternative to diesel-powered heavy-duty vehicles. However, BET adoption relies not only on economic competitiveness but also on operational suitability, charging infrastructure, and organizational readiness. This study analyzes the operational and economic feasibility of electric trucks with high-power charging for heavy-duty fleets in Sweden by assessing the impacts of charging strategies, market conditions of electricity, regulatory incentives, and adoption factors. A mixed-method approach was implemented, combining a techno-economic assessment framework, which is based on the total cost of ownership, with semi-structured interviews analyzed by using the diffusion of innovation theory. The quantitative analysis compares BETs and diesel trucks across future scenario years from 2026 to 2040, embracing a diverse set of parameters. Sensitivity and payback period analyses were executed to assess the uncertainty and viability of the business, whereas qualitative analysis is dedicated to evaluating the operation compatibility and barriers. The results show that BETs are economically more competitive through all the scenario years than diesel trucks. BET TCO in 2026 is €0.680/km and continuously decreasing to €0.504/km in 2040, in contrast to diesel trucks' TCO increasing from €1.009/km to €1.812/km, respectively. Charging strategy has more influence on economic performance than regional electricity prices. Charging strategy has more influence on economic performance than regional electricity prices. In the 2030 SE3 charging-strategy comparison, the depot-dominant strategy gives the lowest TCO (€0.526/km), then it is followed by the mixed and HPC-dominant strategies. In the separate regional depot-only scenario, the modelled TCO decreases further to €0.458/km when assumed elkredit revenue is included. Sensitivity analysis recognizes elkredit revenue, energy consumption, annual mileage, depot charging share, and high-power charging tariffs as the most influential factors of feasibility. Qualitative findings reveal that the adoption of BETs is economically and environmentally advantageous but constrained by charging complexity, availability of infrastructure, and grid capacity limitations. Compatibility for regional predictable routes and opportunities for pilot testing were identified as enablers of adoption. This study concludes that BETs are operationally and economically feasible for Swedish heavy-duty freight transport, particularly depot-based regional distribution, while deployment of long-haul distribution depends on infrastructure availability of HPC and organizational adoption.