CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS FOR WIND POWER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE A study of the exposure to ice prone conditions and changing wind speeds in nine Swedish municipalities

Abstract

Physical climate risks have previously been identified as challenging for wind power and its production; a sector that is becoming increasingly important in the green energy transition to mitigate climate change and manage its consequences. Thus, wind power infrastructure needs to be climate resilient to meet the increasing energy demand in a changing climate. This study uses observational climate data from 1991-2020 to examine the current exposure to ice prone conditions and wind speeds in nine strategically selected municipalities. To examine how the exposure to these hazards might change in the future, the climate model EC-Earth3 was used to calculate change factors from the historical baseline (1991-2014) to the future period (2071-2100) under the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. The results show a clear geographical trend in how northern and southern municipalities are exposed to ice prone conditions and changing wind speeds. Average and maximum wind speed are generally expected to remain unchanged or decrease. Ice prone conditions are estimated to increase in the northernmost municipalities, while southern municipalities appear less affected, both today and in the future. However, uncertainties in climate models mean that the results should be interpreted with caution. Hence, it is evident that climate risk assessments are becoming increasingly important in a changing climate to ensure that activities such as wind power are climate resilient for the future.