ÅLDRANDE BEFOLKNINGAR- Leder ungas sjunkande andel av väljarkårerna till stigande statsskulder och påverkas styrkan i sambandet av graden av demokrati?

Abstract

Large parts of the world are experiencing decreasing youth populations due to lower fertility rates and higher life expectancy. There have been reports suggesting this trend may lead to the marginalization of young voters’ interests as their electoral power decreases. In this study the relationship between decreasing youth populations and public policy implications is examined. Specifically, the report investigates the relationship between ageing populations and national debt and also if voters’ electoral influence is interacting with the relationship. Additionally, the analysis investigates self-interest theories and the dynamics of ageing populations on national debts considering the different economic preferences of different voters and if personal or collective interests influence voter behavior and policy making. The study employs a longitudinal time series cross section analysis of 88 countries from all around the world, spanning from 1970 to 2021. In the report, a significant relationship between decreasing youth populations and increasing national debts is demonstrated, even when accounting for several well-established confounding variables. The relationship is also shown to be dependent of the level of electoral democracy, when voters’ influence is high the relationship becomes stronger and when influence is low there is no significant relationship at all. This strengthens the perception that ageing populations might marginalize young voters, especially in democracies, and that voters act according to their self-interest or that politicians are influenced by what they perceive as the electorate’s self-interest.