Environmental and social determinants of elephant walking speed in conflict-prone areas

Abstract

African savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana) are keystone species whose movements play a crucial role in shaping ecosystems. Yet, their populations are under increasing pressure from poaching, habitat loss, and rising levels of human-elephant conflict (HEC). Gaining a better understanding of how elephants move, particularly their walking speed, can help improve conservation efforts and reduce conflict. This study explores how time of day, environmental conditions (temperature, rainfall, water availability), and social factors (sex and age class) influence walking speed in elephants living in the Makgadikgadi Pans National Park in Botswana, a high-conflict area known for its large number of male elephants, called bulls. Between June 2014 and April 2017, camera traps were placed along established elephant paths to monitor movement. The data were analysed using linear models and generalized additive models (GAMs). The direction of travel turned out to be the strongest predictor of speed: elephants moved significantly faster when heading toward water or food. Time of day also had a clear influence, with a 24-hour rhythm showing higher speeds at night, likely reflecting both thermoregulatory needs and possible crop-raiding behaviour. Temperature had a non-linear relationship with speed: elephants moved faster as temperatures rose, up to a point, after which their speed dropped, suggesting an optimal temperature range for activity. Interactions between time of day and temperature, as well as between time and direction, pointed to a complex mix of behavioural drivers. Other factors like rainfall, sex, and age had only weak or inconsistent effects. Taken together, these findings, based on a unique ecological and social context, shed light on the movement patterns of elephants and point to the importance of considering time, environment, and social structure when developing conservation strategies and managing coexistence in human-altered landscapes.