Tariffs, Empire, and Conflict: Trade Policy in Argentina (1895-1950)

Abstract

This thesis analyses the evolution of Argentina’s trade policy between 1895 and 1950. It encompasses an introduction and four articles, which reconstruct the long-run evolution of tariffs, estimate the impact of trade policies on bilateral trade, and study the political and social conflicts in which these policies were embedded. The first article studies the evolution of tariff levels in Argentina between 1895 and 1951. By relying on product-level data, it shows that initial tariff levels were remarkably high, declined during the two world wars, and rebounded during the interwar years, However, high initial tariff levels were not oriented to infant industries protection; instead, they showed the fiscal importance of tariffs, and local elites influence. The second article, co-authored with Markus Lampe, Kevin O’Rourke, and Sarah Wahsbrook, analyses the impact of Argentina’s discriminatory trade policies constructed around the Roca-Runciman treaty on bilateral trade flows between 1923 and 1938. Combining data about tariffs, exchange controls, and trade agreements with bilateral trade data, the analysis shows that Argentina’s trade policy during the interwar period remarkably reoriented trade flows among trading partners, favouring British products, and discriminating against imports from the United States, Japan, and Italy. The third article, co-authored with Agustina Rayes, examines how the Great Depression affected Argentina’s trade policymaking through analysis of tariff reforms parliamentary debates in 1920, 1923, and 1932, using text and content analysis methods. The analysis reveals that fiscal matters dominated discussions, significant within-party variation, and that the Depression triggered fundamental changes in political polarization. Finally, the fourth article studies trade exposure, immigration, and labour conflict in Buenos Aires (1907-1939). The analysis matches establishment-level strikes with occupational, census, and trade data. The findings show that trade exposure increased labour conflict. Notably, microdata analysis shows that immigrant workers emerged as key drivers of strike activity. Immigrant effects on labour conflicts were highly heterogeneous, with Southern Europeans dominating the strengthening of collective action.