Producentpriser, växelkurser och köttpriser i Sverige 2019-2023

Abstract

This thesis examines to what extent producer prices and exchange rate movements can explain the development of consumer prices for beef and pork in Sweden during the period 2019–2023. During this period, food prices increased substantially, particularly from 2022 onwards, and meat prices rose faster than the general price level. Using monthly data, the analysis is based on ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions where consumer prices, measured as product-specific consumer price indices, are explained by producer prices and exchange rates weighted by each meat category’s import shares. The results show a strong and statistically significant relationship between producer prices and consumer prices for both beef and pork. For beef, the estimated price pass-through from producer to consumer prices is around 95 %, while the corresponding figure for pork is approximately 81 %. Exchange rate pass-through is found to be statistically significant for beef, with an estimated effect of about 24 %, whereas no significant exchange rate effect is found for pork. This difference is consistent with the higher import dependence of beef compared to pork. Overall, the results suggest that the increase in meat prices during the studied period is largely related to higher costs in earlier stages of the value chain, shown in producer prices. This indicates that the price increases are mainly cost-driven, rather than the result of increased demand or changes in pricing behavior in the food retail sector.