Does time make more converts than reason? An analysis of what drives public opinion towards the European Union in Sweden

Abstract

Since Sweden joined the European Union in 1995, the Swedish opinion towards EU membership has gone from barely positive enough to win the advisory election, to a stable majority in favour of the membership. Founded on previous literature, this thesis argues that support for EU membership is deserved, as the perceived influence by the EU on national policy is positive. A causal mechanism is specified in which time and policy evaluation is expected to co-vary and strengthen the effect through a continuous socialisation process as time passes. Data from the European Parliament election studies 1999 – 2014 is used in logistic regression analysis, calculating predicted probabilities to support EU membership. Five policy areas divided into three groups in which the EU has a varying degree of mandate are investigated, uncovering significant differences. The results indicate that continuous socialisation is taking place on an aggregated level. When taking a closer look at the variations within the explanatory variables, a polarising effect between those evaluating EU impacts on policy performances most positively and most negatively is found. Further research would benefit from looking into what causes the polarisation effect and compare data with developments in other European countries.