EU STRATEGIC AUTONOMY AND THE RUSSIAN WAR IN UKRAINE: TOWARDS A FIFTH WAVE? A neoclassical realist analysis

Abstract

This thesis analyses the development of the concept of strategic autonomy in the EU's crisis management following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Preceding crises affecting the EU have led to further EU integration, including for crisis management at the EU level, and previous research implies that crises have been important factors in the previous four waves of debate on strategic autonomy. The central aim of this thesis is to determine the existence and essence of a fifth wave induced by the war in Ukraine by utilising a neoclassical realist analysis. A qualitative content analysis on EU crisis management documents combined with think-tank analyses is applied for comparison of the strategic autonomy concept before and after the invasion. A complementary theory-driven process-tracing analysis controls for how the actors of concern in this thesis (the European Commission, the Council, and the High Representative/Vice-President) have shaped this concept. The findings indicate considerable development across several aspects of the strategic autonomy concept as a consequence of the war. In line with neoclassical realist theoretical assumptions, differences are also addressed between the actors, which is of interest for the progression of the nexus between crisis management and strategic autonomy. Taken together, the findings demonstrate the emergence of a fifth wave, shaped by previous dependence on, and threat from, Russia. By utilising neoclassical realism to analyse the conceptual debate on strategic autonomy, this thesis provides theoretical and empirical evidence for a fifth wave of conceptual development on the relationship between strategic autonomy and EU crisis management.