Hur har utvecklingen av andelen pensionärer i befolkningen påverkat Tysklands arbetskrafts storlek från 2000 till 2022?

Abstract

Germany has experienced low birth rates ever since the 1970s when they fell below the replacement levels of 2,1 children per woman. Since then, their birth rate has been around 1,5 children per woman, which has caused an overall aging population. The consequences of the declining birth rates is that the previous generations are becoming larger than the younger generations. This demographic shift raises concern about how its potential implications might affect different aspects of the country and its economy overall. The aim of this paper is to try to discern the dynamic between the share of the labor force in relation to total population, with the share of pensioners in relation to the total population. In order to achieve this, a time series analysis with ordinary least square is constructed where Germany's labor force share of total population along with the share of pensioners are observed over a time period between 2000-2022. Furthermore, control variables such as net migration, female labor participation and age groups are taken into consideration to name a few. Additionally, to avoid spurious relationships in the result a differentiation method is utilized. The results of this study indicate that, in one of the two significant models tested, a positive relationship between the share of the workforce and the share of pensioners is evident. However, the final model reveals a negative relationship between the two variables, suggesting that an increase in the share of pensioners has a negative effect on the share of the labor force relative to the population. Lastly, the positive correlation observed may be a short-term phenomenon that does not persist beyond the observed time period, or at least not in the long term.