The development of the winner loser gap: Institutional decline, polarization, and satisfaction with democracy around the world 1995-2024

Abstract

That election winners and losers perceive democracy differently is one of the most consistent findings in political science. The size of this ‘gap’ is gen erally considered to be dependent on a myriad of institutional or contextual factors related to national institutions or the characteristics of elections. How ever, global developments such as the increase in partisan polarization and democratic backsliding necessitate a longitudinal perspective in how percep tions of democracy are developing. Using the most comprehensive collection of survey data on satisfaction with democracy (SWD) and electoral behavior to date, this article examines the development of the winner-loser gap globally over three decades, encompassing over 1.2 million survey responses from 92 democracies around the world between 1995-2024. Most notably, this paper finds that the winner-loser gap has almost doubled in this time, and that this development is primarily driven by losers becoming increasingly dissatisfied with democracy. Mediation analyses suggest this time trend to be more likely driven by within-country decreases in the quality of democratic institutions rather than increases in polarization. These findings have important impli cations for the development of democracy worldwide, especially in contexts where democratic institutions are under threat.