Evaluating the Agricultural Impact of EU Accession: A Synthetic Control Analysis of Ukraine’s Agricultural Future

Abstract

This study assesses how a European Union (EU) accession would affect agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) for Ukraine, using a Synthetic Control Method, four entrants with sound pre‑treatment fit (Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Romania) are each matched to a weighted composite of 18 non‑EU countries. Post‑accession effects prove modest and mixed, spanning --2.1 to +7.3 index points, and no case exhibits an immediate, decisive surge. These country effects, re‑weighted by structural similarity, inform a counterfactual projection for Ukraine. The results yielded an average gain of +2.19 index points in the first twelve years, well within the model’s ±3.96‑point prediction error, and thus statistically insignificant from 0. Only in the final 3 years does the projected gap rise to +5.14 points, hinting at delayed benefits contingent on complementary reforms. This suggests that EU membership alone neither guarantees nor precludes productivity growth.