THE LEGITIMACY OF CHANGE A qualitative study explaining the democratic legitimacy of Sweden’s NATO membership application

Abstract

In May 2022, Sweden’s government led by Magdalena Andersson, decided to apply for membership in the military alliance NATO. The decision ended more than 200 years of Sweden’s non-military alignment and represented a major policy shift by the Andersson cabinet. Through the use of the principal-agent theory, this thesis evaluates this decision. Data from public opinion polls represents the preferences of the electorate, while statements and decisions made by members of the Andersson cabinet represents the preferences of the cabinet. This data has been captured and compared in three distinct time periods beginning in November 2021, when the Andersson cabinet took office, and ending in May 2022, when the decision to join NATO was made. The analysis of the preferences of the electorate and the cabinet shows that the cabinet’s actions aligned with the preferences of the electorate. Because the preferences of the electorate and the cabinet were fully congruent when the decision to join NATO was made in May 2022, this thesis evaluates Sweden’s application for NATO membership as being democratically legitimate from a principal-agent perspective.