Buying Quiescence: The Influence of Resource Reliance on Citizens’ Demand for Democracy

Abstract

Revenues from oil, minerals and gas are important to many states around the world. Some countries rely so heavily on these revenues that they have received the epithet “resource-reliant states.” Controversy remains regarding whether this reliance induces the public to push for less pro-democratic demands in such states. Some argue that resource reliance is likely to undermine citizens’ motivation to demand accountability from - and representation in - their government. Others contend that resource reliance is unlikely to lead to political quietude among citizens in a country. To test these competing claims, this article uses the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset on pro-democratic mass mobilization in 153 autocratic countries observed between 1971 and 2016. The regression analysis reveals that there is no statistical association between reliance on resource rents—whether total rents, oil or mineral rents— and pro-democratic mass mobilization in autocratic countries. The findings cut against the longstanding view held by the proponents of the resource curse theory in the rentier state literature that political quiescence is more associated with countries that rely on resource wealth