ENERGI SOM MAKTMEDEL: ASYMMETRI OCH HOTBILD I DEN TYSK-RYSKA GASRELATIONEN En analys utifrån interdependensteorin och neorealismen

Abstract

European energy security has relied on the expectation of steady supplies, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed how strongly connected economies can become sources of vulnerability. While previous research has examined the German and Russian natural gas relations, there is a gap that examines how this dependency has developed and been measured across an extended period. Tracing its development shows how asymmetric dependencies overlap with changing national security threats. In this context, the thesis investigates how significant events between 2005 and 2025 influenced Germany’s energy policies. With a process-tracing approach, the study uses empirical data from trade statistics, policy documents and key events to uncover causal links across three separate periods. The findings suggest German policymaking was continually influenced by the tension between asymmetric dependence and national security threats. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a turning point, intensifying threat perceptions and resulting in a rapid German elimination from direct Russian gas imports by 2023. However, the thesis finds evidence of enduring complex interdependence, with Russian LNG still reaching Germany indirectly via Belgium and the Netherlands. This highlights the challenge and difficulty of untangling decades of deep economic integration.