Does Type of Authoritarianism Affect the Prospects for Democracy? Exogenous Shocks and Contingent Democratization

Abstract

In this paper we test the often asserted view that the prospects for democratization differ among different types of authoritarian regimes. To what extent do exogenous shocks— economic crisis, popular protest and democratic diffusion—impact on democratization differently among monarchies, one-party, military, and limited multi-party regimes? Drawing on cross-sectional time-series evidence from a global sample of countries in 1972-2002, we find that in particular limited multiparty, and to some extent military regimes, are more likely than one-party regimes to democratize in response to popular protest and economic performance.