Vulnerability or Strategic Backlash? Economic Dependence and Political Response in Times of War A Quantitative Study on States' Dependence on Russian Energy and Their Support for Ukraine

Abstract

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 exposed deep political and economic divisions within the European Union (EU) – especially regarding the Member States' support for Ukraine. One potential explanation is the different degrees of dependence on Russian energy. Russia has long served as a key energy supplier for the European states and has historically used this position strategically to extract concessions or influence foreign policy. However, it remains unclear whether energy dependence on Russia conditions the EU Member States support for Ukraine. Hence, two competing hypotheses are tested through a statistical design. The results show no statistically significant correlation between energy dependence on Russia and support for Ukraine. However, the limited number of observations and the quality on the data increase the uncertainty of the findings. To address this, general trade with Russia is introduced as a proxy for energy dependence on Russia, revealing a positive correlation with support for Ukraine. These findings suggest a complex relationship. One interpretation is that energy dependence on Russia may increase support for Ukraine, but the statistical significance may be obscured due to limitations in the number of observations and the data quality. Another is that energy dependence on Russia may constrain the support for Ukraine, indicating that general trade with Russia and energy dependence on Russia are conceptually two different things. By empirically examining the tension between vulnerability and strategic backlash, the study contributes to a better understanding of how asymmetric interdependence shape state behaviour during war.