School’s out! Information Cues and Retrospective Voting in the Case of School Closures in Sweden

Abstract

While researchprovidesevidencethatvoters’considergovernments’ past performance,littleisknownaboutwhichinformationvoterspay attentionto.Wesuggesttwocompetingtheoriesofretrospective voting:Outcome-orientedvotersonlyreacttothepolicyoutcome, whereas position-orientedvotersconsidertheinitialproposalasin- formativeoftheincumbent’spolicypositionandpunishthemforthe unpopularidea.Wetesttheseopposingmechanismsusingthecase of widelyunpopularschoolclosuresandoriginallycompiledgranular data onSwedishlocalelectionsresultsfrom2002to2018.Weexploit within municipalityvariationinvotingacrosstimetocausallyesti- mate theconsequencesforincumbentsintheneighborhoodsurround- ing theschools.Ourresultsconfirmthatvoterspunishincumbents for closingaschoolbutalsoforwithdrawingtheproposal:theyvote position-oriented.Ourfindingshaveimplicationsfortheunderstand- ing ofretrospectivevotingandwhichinformationcuesvoterslook backto.