När blir statsskuld ett hinder för investeringar? En kvantitativ studie av sambandet mellan statsskuld och investeringar i EU-länder, 2010–2023

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between public debt and investment levels in European Union countries during the period 2010–2023. The aim of the study is to analyze how public debt affects investment and to investigate whether this relationship changes when macroeconomic factors are taken into account, as well as whether the effect differs between countries with low and high levels of public debt, defined according to the Maastricht criterion of a 60 percent debt-to-GDP ratio. The analysis is based on panel data for 28 EU countries and employs regression analysis with progressively extended model specifications. The results indicate a negative relationship between public debt and investment levels in EU countries. This relationship becomes statistically significant when control variables such as inflation, GDP growth, the real interest rate, and trade openness are included in the model. Furthermore, the findings show that there is no statistically significant difference in the effect of public debt on investment between countries with low and high levels of debt. The classification based on the Maastricht criterion therefore does not provide additional explanatory power. Overall, the results primarily support the crowding-out theory, while not excluding the possibility that public debt may have weak or positive effects on investment under certain conditions.