Från oenighet till fientlighet En studie om affektiv polarisering bland förstagångsväljare i Sverige

Abstract

This study examines affective polarization among first-time voters in Sweden and the factors that explain variation in its levels. Affective polarization refers to the extent to which individuals hold negative feelings toward political opponents. Drawing on social identity theory and theories of ideological polarization, the study tests two hypotheses regarding why first-time voters are expected to display lower levels of affective polarization compared to older voters. Affective polarization is operationalized as the dispersion of individuals' evaluations of political parties and analyzed using visual graphs alongside bivariate and multivariate regression models to identify underlying mechanisms. The results show that first-time voters, on average, exhibit slightly lower levels of affective polarization than older voters. This difference is primarily explained by weaker party identification, while ideological polarization does not have a significant mediating effect. However, first-time voters who do possess the same strong party identification as older voters exhibit higher levels of polarization, suggesting nuanced dynamics in early political socialization within a multi-party context.