FAR-RIGHT ENDORSEMENT OR REPUDIATION? Exploring the Impact of Extreme-Right Violence on Support for Radical-Right Parties in Western Europe

Abstract

This study examines the impact of extreme-right violence on support for radical-right parties on an aggregate level. I argue that previous research on the nexus tends to discuss and test explanations focusing on exclusively positive or solely negative effects. In doing so, the studies disregard arguments suggesting that the effect may very well go in both directions. Consequently, by considering various explanations – on identities and norms, emotions as well as public discourse – I formulate and test hypotheses predicting both directions of the effect. Using a regression discontinuity in time design, I analyze support for the radical-right party Alternative für Deutschland between 2018 and 2022 in German constituencies. The study shows that incidents of extreme-right violence do not significantly affect radical-right party support. This finding suggests that while extreme-right violence may pose a security concern, it is not linked to voting behavior and the electoral success of radical-right parties.