STABILITY OR CHANGE? U.S. Presidential Leadership Turnover and Foreign Policy Alignment

Abstract

Previous research shows a decline in foreign policy alignment with Western states under the first Trump administration compared to previous U.S. presidential administrations. Yet, it is unclear whether the decline represents a temporary shift or a more durable and systematic shift. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether domestic leadership turnover results in foreign policy change, ultimately leading to shifts in foreign policy alignment. Accordingly, this study assumes that changes in U.S. presidential leadership are a primary driver of shifts in foreign policy alignment with other states. Within a quantitative research design, I use panel data regressions to analyze a sample of 169 states categorized as either Western or non-Western. Voting patterns in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) are used to estimate the impact of U.S. presidential turnover between 2009 and 2024. I make two principal findings. First, the results show a decrease in foreign policy alignment under the Trump administration and an increase under the Biden administration. Second, the effect is not isolated to Western states. Thus, the findings suggest a global effect of U.S. presidential turnover on the foreign policy alignment between the United States and other states. Future research should incorporate the domestic political shifts within the other states to isolate the effect of U.S. presidential leadership turnover.