Public Opinion on Energy Transition - The Impact of Representation in the Public Debate

Abstract

Aim/research problem: The aim of the research is to investigate to what extent rural and urban interests are represented in the public debate on energy transition in Germany. Further this, research investigates differences in public support for energy transition between rural and urban areas. Lastly, the research investigates how representation in public debate affects support for energy transition. This is important as energy transition requires broad public support among the population to be a success. Despite this, little research has examined the representation of rural and urban communities in public discourse, as well as the impact of this representation on public opinion remains largely unexplored. Theory: This research draws on public debate theory (Lambek, 2024), agenda-building theory (Nisbet, 2008), and representation theory (Pitkin, 1967) in order to understand representation in public debate. Regional divides are contextualized using structural theory of imperialism (Galtung, 1971) and cleavage theory (Lipset & Rokkan, 1967). Energy justice theory (Heffron, 2022), specifically procedural and distributional justice is also at heart of this study. The combination of these theories serves as the basis of this research. Methods: The study employs a quantitative research design. T-tests are conducted to establish if there are meaningful differences between representation of rural and urban interests in the public debate as well as differences in public opinion on energy transition between rural and urban communities. A multivariate regression analysis is conducted to estimate the relationship between representation in the public debate and public opinion on energy transition. Relevant control variables are included. The program used in the context of this study is Stata 18. Material: This study employs secondary data, specifically, the Umweltbewusstseinstudie 2022 (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit (BMU) et al., 2024). The data was collected in Germany using multi-stage probability sampling in 2022. The sample includes 2073 observations and was weighted using characteristics such as region, age, gender, and education to align it with the population. Results: The main findings of this study are: (1) Rural interests are underrepresented in the public debate; urban interests are adequately represented. (2) Public support regarding energy transition is lower in rural areas than it is urban areas. (3) Representation of rural interests in public debate affects public opinion on energy transition. Representation of urban interests, by contrast, does not have a statistically significant effect on public opinion on energy transition. This thesis highlights the fact that a fair energy transition is not only about fair infrastructure but also about a fair voice.