LOCKDOWNS & POPULISM Support for right-wing populist parties post-COVID

Abstract

As the last three years have shown the electoral support for right-wing populist parties has increased markedly in Western democracies. This comes on the heels of the Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdowns and restrictions imposed by national governments as a response to the crisis. While there is plenty of previously published research on voter support for right-wing populist parties, less is known about the effect the pandemic had the on the support for these parties. By relying on contemporary research and established theory, I investigate whether individuals who are dissatisfied with their national government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic were more or less likely to support a right-wing populist party. This to provide an answer to whether national pandemic policy affected the electoral outcomes for right-wing populist parties or not. Based on the findings and theory presented in the literature it became clear that the evidence pointed to an increase in support for RPPs after the pandemic, and some recent evidence suggested that this could be connected to opinion on pandemic response. To investigate this, I relied on data from the ESS10 dataset published by the European Social Survey. Using a multivariate logistic regression this relationship was investigated and the hypothesis that dissatisfaction with government’s handling of the pandemic would increase the probability of individuals supporting right-wing populist parties was confirmed. I conclude that it is very likely that pandemic response affected the electoral outcomes of right-wing populist parties, as those dissatisfied with pandemic policy had a higher probability to support these parties above all other alternatives.