DEN LIBERALA FREDEN: ETT TVEEGGAT SVÄRD? En kvantitativ studie om staters handelsrelationer och dess påverkan på röstbeteende i FNs generalförsamling

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between trade and diplomacy, challenging the assumption of the liberal theory that trade promotes peace. The paper posits that trade relations can constrain a state's diplomatic freedom of action, particularly in the context of situations where a trading partner instigates conflict with a third party. In order to investigate this, the paper will analyse the influence of trade relations with Russia on countries' voting behaviour in the UN general assembly regarding the invasion of Ukraine. The hypothesis is that countries with extensive trade relations with Russia, particularly in the import of gas and oil, are more likely to align their votes with Russia. The study will employ a quantitative methodology utilising data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) and UN polls. The findings reveal a positive impact of elevated import levels from Russia and an increased propensity for aligning votes with Russia in UN Resolution A/RES/ES-11/1. Moreover, the analysis reveals robust negative effects between democracy level and the probability of aligning votes with Russia. Subsequent findings reveal that Russia's imports, encompassing both total imports and raw material imports from other nations, exert no significant influence on voting behavior, with the exception of the robustness check. In this particular analysis, raw material imports to Russia exhibit a positive and statistically significant effect. However, when controlling for variables such as NATO membership, GDP, democratic status, and former Soviet and BRICS membership, this effect becomes rendered non-significant.