AGAINST AUTOCRATIZATION: THE IMPACT OF NON-VIOLENT RESISTANCE CAMPAIGNS ON SUCCESSFUL DEMOCRATIC RESILIENCE A Comparative Quantitative Study from 1900 to 2020

Abstract

How can democracies stop episodes of autocratization and return to previous levels? So far, research has underestimated the role of non-violent resistance in preserving democratic structures and freedoms. This thesis presents mechanisms how civil society organizations can use means of non-violent resistance to successfully achieve democratic resilience. Using a novel panel dataset spanning from 1900 to 2020, I employ a logistic regression to analyse the relationship between non-violent resistance and democratic resilience over time. The results show that one episode of non-violent resistance increases the probability of successful democratic resilience by 14%, rising to 29.7% with two episodes. These probabilities are considerably higher during the third wave of autocratization. Moreover, I find that experiences of non-violent resistance prior to the onset of autocratization contribute significantly to democratic resilience, with a remarkable 50.8% probability when it occurs one year before. The study highlights the effectiveness of non-violent resistance in bringing about regime change and subsequent democratization, offering hope in the face of the current global crisis of democracy.