Technological change, skills, and occupational structure in Sweden, 1870-1950

Abstract

This dissertation explores occupations and skills in the Swedish labor markets during the industrial breakthrough. It encompasses an introduction and four research papers, each addressing issues related to how technological change shapes labor markets. The first and second papers focus on occupational structure and skills, covering all sectors of the economy. The third of fourth papers delve into specific technologies within manufacturing, namely steam and electricity. The first paper conducts an explorative study of the Swedish labor markets between 1870 and 1930. By employing tabulated population censuses and utilizing the HISCLASS scheme for skill classification, I demonstrate that, at the aggregate level, the Swedish population indeed shifted from unskilled to more-skilled occupations. Occupational upgrading was notably more pronounced for women compared to men, with a significant number of women leaving agriculture for skilled service jobs. Within the manufacturing sector, employment shifted from medium-skilled to low- and unskilled occupations. Thus, I propose that the shift from agriculture to services played a more important role in the aggregate skill upgrading in Sweden than the shift from agriculture to industry. The second paper investigates how industrialization and technological change impact the skill premium. Using income tax registry data to construct a series of occupational incomes between 1900 and 1950, the study challenges the expectation of a rising skill premium associated with skill-biased technologies like electricity. Despite rapid technological change, the skill premium decreased, largely because of the faster income growth of low- and unskilled production workers compared to high- and medium-skilled white-collar workers. In the third paper, in collaboration with Svante Prado and Yoshihiro Sato, we explore the association between mechanization and female and child employment. Drawing on an establishment-level survey from 1879, we show that establishment size is positively associated with the employment of women and children, and that the effect of mechanization is likely mediated through establishment size. Finally, the fourth paper, co-authored by Svante Prado, shows that the widespread electrification of Swedish industry was in general positive for labor. Using establishment-level data from industrial surveys, we show that electricity use is positively associated with higher employment and wages. Furthermore, establishments that adopted electricity during our study period increased their employment and wages more rapidly than those that did not adopt electricity.