BROKEN BRIDGES Trust in National Governments and NATO Among the Russian Minority in the Baltic States after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

This study analyses to what degree trust changed among the Russian minorities in the Baltic states in regard to their national governments and NATO following the war in Ukraine. Constructivism lays the theoretical framework, which is aided by conceptualisations of hybrid warfare and trust. Quantitative analysis relies on regional and language data from the Eurobarometer 2021 and 2022 surveys, as well as political party data from all three countries. The outcome of the study shows that Ida-Viru County in Estonia has a distinctive “Russian Identity” that is not mirrored at the national level or in Latvia or Lithuania. This study aids broader academic research on the Russian minorities in these three countries to see how the war in Ukraine affected thinking on national and international institutions.