The Impact of Global Warming on Wind Power Potential in the Greater Horn of Africa

Abstract

The wind speed variability and wind power potential in the Greater Horn of Africa is analyzed in this study to fill a knowledge gap regarding if wind power can be used more as a source of energy for the region. This is investigated based on reanalysis data from ERA5, observed wind speeds, CORDEX-Africa regional climate models (RCMs) for future projections and a literature review. The study reveals a small but continuous increase in ERA5 wind speed with a significant correlation to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) but this development is not well supported by the RCMs. The wind power potential was generally low upto the year 2100 but significant higher potential was seen in northern Kenya and Somalia, most likely due to the Turkana jet and the Somali jet. Despite the quantitative results, recommendations for further research regarding observation data and land cover changes in the region as well as uncertainties regarding the future warming of the Indian Ocean and its impact on the IOD are addressed as ways to improve the study as a strive for more robust results.