School’s out! Information Cues and Retrospective Voting in the Case of School Closures in Sweden
Abstract
While researchprovidesevidencethatvoters’considergovernments’
past performance,littleisknownaboutwhichinformationvoterspay
attentionto.Wesuggesttwocompetingtheoriesofretrospective
voting:Outcome-orientedvotersonlyreacttothepolicyoutcome,
whereas position-orientedvotersconsidertheinitialproposalasin-
formativeoftheincumbent’spolicypositionandpunishthemforthe
unpopularidea.Wetesttheseopposingmechanismsusingthecase
of widelyunpopularschoolclosuresandoriginallycompiledgranular
data onSwedishlocalelectionsresultsfrom2002to2018.Weexploit
within municipalityvariationinvotingacrosstimetocausallyesti-
mate theconsequencesforincumbentsintheneighborhoodsurround-
ing theschools.Ourresultsconfirmthatvoterspunishincumbents
for closingaschoolbutalsoforwithdrawingtheproposal:theyvote
position-oriented.Ourfindingshaveimplicationsfortheunderstand-
ing ofretrospectivevotingandwhichinformationcuesvoterslook
backto.
Link to web site
https://www.gu.se/sites/default/files/2022-09/2022_6_Gren_Leuschner.pdf
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Date
2022-09Author
Gren, Simon
Leuschner, Elena
Publication type
article, other scientific
ISSN
1653-8919
Series/Report no.
Working Papers
2022:6
Language
eng