Det skärpta amorteringskravet - En överdriven oro med stora konsekvenser?

Abstract

After the global recession in 2008, were we saw housing prices take a dive, the housing market has been booming in Sweden during these last 7-8 years. The huge increase in housing prices, paired with historically low interest rates have been raising concerns regarding the households ability to resist sudden economic disturbances. Although this might be of concern, the main issue, according to the central bank of Sweden, (Riksbanken), is constantly increasing debt ratio of the Swedish households. So the last couple of years there have been policy interventions with restrictions on private housing loans.

Our main goal of this paper is to evaluate the effects of the last policy-change. We used a before-after analysis to determine whether the amortization requirements imposed by the government has had a negative effect on consumers with lower income, mainly young adults buying their first condominium. Our model also compares the percentage increase in apartments sold in central parts of Stockholm and Gothenburg, with neighbourhoods with typically lower square-meter prices. We found some statistical significance in our target variables, indicating a possibility that the situation for new buyers with lower income, especially young adults, has been worsened, as their disposable income has been further decreased. But it requires more research over time to determine this effect. We couldn´t find the same significance in Gothenburg.