1 Environmental Taxation in Airline Markets Fredrik Carlsson Working Papers in Economics no 24 May 2000 Department of Economics Göteborg University Abstract Over the last two decades many airline markets have been deregulated, resulting in increased competition and use of different types of networks. At the same time there has been an intense discussion on environmental taxation of airline traffic. It is likely that an optimal environmental tax and the effects of a tax differ between different types of aviation markets. In this paper we derive optimal environmental taxes for different types of airline markets. The first type of market is a multiproduct monopoly airline operating either a point-to-point network or a hub-and-spoke network. The optimal tax is shown to be similar in construction to an optimal tax for a monopolist. We also compare the environmental impact of the two types of networks. Given no differences in marginal damages between airports we find that an airline will always choose the network with the highest environmental damages. The second type of market we investigate is a multiproduct duopoly, where two airlines compete in both passengers and flights. The formulation of the optimal tax is similar to the optimal tax of a single product oligopoly. However, we also show that it is, because of strategic effects, difficult to determine the effects of the tax on the number of flights. Key words: Environmental taxation, Multiproduct duopoly, Aviation, Networks. JEL classification: D62, L13. Department of Economics Göteborg University Box 640 SE-40530 Göteborg Sweden Tel: +46 31 7734174 Fax: +46 31 7731043 e-mail: Fredrik.Carlsson@economics.gu.se 2 1. Introduction1 In this paper we discuss the issue of optimal environmental taxation for different types of aviation markets. In the standard perfect competition model the optimal prescription is a tax equal to marginal external damages, a so-called Pigouvian tax. However, airline markets has two properties that affect the optimal environmental tax: imperfect competition and network effects. Most airline markets consists of only a few actors and in many cases only one or two airlines operate on a particular route. Network effects occur because aviation markets (connections) in many cases are related on the demand and/or cost side. One interesting development of airline markets has been the increased use of hub-and-spoke operations (see e.g. Borenstein 1992). The main explanation for the formation of hub-and-spoke networks is probably economies of traffic density (e.g. Caves et al. 1984), but there could also be positive effects on the demand side since hubbing can result in more frequent flights to a larger number of cities (market presence). The environmental impact from the aviation sector depends on the number of flights, types of aircraft engines that are used, and the location of the airports. In this paper we take technology as given, even though this is probably an equally important factor for environmental improvements. Instead we focus on the number of flights as the environmental impact. In the model presented an airline has two choice variables, number of passengers and number of flights. We follow the standard approach (see e.g. DeVany 1975, Schmalensee 1977) and assume that demand is increasing in capacity (number of flights) since delay costs are decreasing in capacity. Consequently an airline has incentives to increase the number of flights in order to increase demand for air travel. In the first part of the paper we elaborate on the model presented in Nero and Black (1998). They analyse a monopoly airline and the differences in environmental impact between a point-to-point network and hub-and-spoke network. Here we extend this model to cover non-symmetric equilibrium, thereby allowing for different effects on the number of flights at different connections. We derive optimal environmental taxes for the two types of networks, and compare the environmental impacts of the two networks, 1 The author would like to thank Gardner Brown, Olof Johansson-Stenman, Åsa Löfgren and participants at seminars in Gothenburg for useful comments. Financial support from the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. 3 by comparing the number of flights. In the second part of the paper we extend the discussion to a market with two airlines. The airlines make decisions both about the number of passengers and the number flights, which means that the airlines are multiproduct duopolists. The two "products", passengers and flights, are related through the demand function; where market demand depends on the aggregate number of passengers and flights. Given this model we derive the optimal environmental tax and the comparative statics of the tax. 2. General outline of the model In order to derive useful result we will work with a rather simple model. For any city pair ij the cost function for an airline is given by: ijijijij FtbcQC )( ++= , (1) where ijQ is the number of passengers, ijF the number of flights, c is the marginal passenger cost, b is the marginal flight cost, net of any environmental tax, and ijt is the environmental tax. The cost function is the same as in Nero and Black (1998),2 and admittedly the assumption of separability and the absence of economies of scope are restrictive.3 The demand on city pair ij is a function of price, number of flights and a market-specific demand shift parameter, ijW . We assume the following inverse demand: s-bse-eae W=W= ijijijijijijij QFQFP /1//1 . (2) Throughout the paper we restrict the absolute value of the price-elasticity, e, to be larger than unity, and the flight elasticity, a , to be lower than unity.4 For the inverse 2 Their model in turn builds on the models by DeVany (1975) and Schmalensee (1977). 3 The assumption is made for analytical convenience, but it should be noted that the comparison between the two types of network could be affected by changing the functional form of the cost function. 4 The restrictions of the elasticities have some support by empirical findings. Summarising major survey results on price elasticities Oum et al. (1992) finds that most studies show values of the price elasticity between 0.8 and 2.0. However, it should be noted that some studies indicate that business passengers are less price elastic, with values around 1.0 (see for example Oum et al. 1986 and Oum et al. 1993). DeVany (1972) estimate the flight elasticity for domestic US flights to around 1.2, while Morrison and Winston (1986) find flight elasticities for business passengers to be around 0.2 and for leisure travel roughly 0.05. Berechman and de Wit (1996), using European data, estimate the flight elasticity to 0.7 for business passengers and 0.3 for leisure passengers. 4 demand function the absolute value of the inverse price-elasticity is given by s, where 1 ,;; . (14) 8 Assuming that hihj FF £ , and using the equilibrium solution for the passengers, the first order condition in (14) yields the following equilibrium level of flights: a- s-s- s-+ W+W s- b = 1 112 /1/1 )( )1)(( )22() 1 ( hj hj H hj tb cc F = Phj hj Fa-e- W W+ 1 1 12 )( 221 . (15) Consequently, the difference in the number of flights between the point-to-point network and the hub-and-spoke network depends on the price- and flight elasticities and on the demand shift parameters. If Hhi H hj FF < then, for a given tax, the number of flights on connection hi is the same as in the point-to-point network: a- s- s-+ s- Wb = 1 1 /1 )( )1)(( ) 1 ( hi hi H hi tb cc F = PhiF . (16) Now the regulator maximises the following objective function: hjhjhjhj khj hj fij Q F ij FtFDCdQdFFQPW ij ij +--= åå òò ÎÎ )(),( 0 0 , (17) by setting two different environmental taxes 1ht and 2ht . The difference between the hub-and-spoke network and the point-to-point network is the demand from the connecting passengers. Whether this affects the tax expression or not depends on whether the number of flights at the connection is higher or lower than the number of flights at the other connection. The model is such that for the connection with the highest number of flights, the airline has no incentive to increase the flights in order to increase the demand for the connecting passengers (there is still an effect for passengers travelling directly on that connection). Consequently, for that connection the optimal tax will not be a function of the connecting passengers. We proceed assuming that hihj FF < , which means that the optimal tax for connection hi is the same as in the 6 This is also a difference from the model in Nero and Black (1998) where the share of connecting passengers is exogenous. 9 point-to-point case. For connection hj , differentiating the regulators objective function with respect to the tax hjt , using the fist order conditions in (14) and solving for the tax: hj hj hj hj hjgj gjqj hjhj hj hj hj hj hj hj hj hj dt dF dt dF PQ Fdt dQcP F dt dQ cP F F D t å Î b- s- +- +b +- +b - ¶ ¶ = 12, 12 12 )()()( 1 12 11 (18) Again, the optimal tax consists of two parts, but the second part now involves the effects on demand in two markets; passengers travelling directly between airport h and j, and passengers travelling between airport i and j through the hub airport. As in the point-to-point case we can substitute in the price- and flight elasticities, and show that the tax expression is decreasing in both the price- and flight elasticity, for a given change in output and flights. The comparative statics are also easy to establish; both the number of passengers and flights are decreasing in the tax. Consequently the second part of the tax expression is positive. Compared to the point-to-point network, the second part of the tax expression now consists of two additional positive expressions stemming from the effect on connecting passengers. The tax is therefore reduced even more compared to the corresponding Pigouvian tax at the connection with the least number of flights. For the other connection, the tax is the same as in the point-to-point network. 4. Environmental effects in the two networks We can make a direct comparison of the environmental effects of the two types of networks, at least in a simplified fashion, by comparing the number of flights in the two networks. Thus, in the comparison we rule out any differences in marginal damages between airports and any differences in distance between the cities. This is probably not the case in reality, where the marginal damage could be higher at the hub airport. This mainly due to congestion which is a negative externality, but congestion can also increase other external effects such as noise and local emissions (see Carlsson 1999). It is also likely that there are differences in distance between the cities. We distinguish between two cases: (i) non-symmetric equilibrium with different demand-shift 10 parameters and different capacity and (ii) symmetric equilibrium. The comparison between the networks is made on the premise that the tax is the same for both networks (alternatively that there are no environmental taxes). Note that the difference in the number of flights between the two networks depends on output- and flight elasticities and the demand shift parameters. From (5) we also have that: ( ) PhjhjP FF a-WW= 111212 . (19) Symmetric equilibrium We begin with the symmetric equilibrium where the demand shift parameters are identical; consequently the difference in flights between the networks depends only on the price- and flight elasticities. The following propositions are modified versions of the propositions given in Nero and Black (1998). The difference is that in our model the share of connecting passengers in the hub-and-spoke networks depends on the price elasticity, while in Nero and Black (1998) this share is exogenous. Proposition 1a: The number of flights at the leg airport is higher under the point-to- point network than under the hub-and-spoke network if 5.022 >- e-a- . Proof: From the equilibrium levels of flights in (5) and (15), and using (19) and the fact that ijW=W 12 , we have that proposition 1a is true if PP FF a-e-+> 1 1 )221(2 . This means that when the flight elasticity is low and the price elasticity is high the number of flights is higher at the leg-airports under the point-to-point network compared to the hub-and-spoke network. When 0®a this is always true, and when 1®e this is never true. From the proposition we can calculate critical levels of the elasticities, i.e. values where the number of flights are the same in the two networks. For example, when the flight elasticity is 0.5 then the price elasticity would have to be higher than 2.27 in order for this to be the case. 11 Proposition 1b: The total number of flights at the hub airport is always higher under the hub-and-spoke network. Proof: From the equilibrium levels of flights in (5) and (15), and using the fact that ijW=W 12 , we have that proposition 1b is true if PP FF 2)221(2 1 1 a-e-+< . This implies that the proposition is true if 1)221( 1 1 >+ a-e- , and since 1>a this is always true. Proposition 1b is not surprising, but what is interesting is under what conditions the difference in number of flights is small or large. This follows directly from the proposition; there is a lower difference in number of flights when the flight elasticity is low and the price elasticity is high. In that case demand does not increase that much due to the increase in number of flights, and demand decreases much due to the increase in prices. Proposition 1c: The total number of flights is higher under the point-to-point network if 125.1 11 >- e-a- . Proof: From the equilibrium levels of flights in (5) and (15), and using (19) and the fact that ijW=W 12 , we have that proposition 1c is true if PP FF 4)221(6 1 1 a-e-+> . Consequently, the total number of flights is higher in the point-to-point network when the flight elasticity is low and the price elasticity is high. If we assume no differences in marginal damages between airports, we could also conclude that total external damages are higher in a point-to-point network when the flight elasticity is low and the price elasticity is high.7 However, the elasticities will also determine the airline's choice of network. For the airline's choice of network we have the following proposition. 7 The flight elasticity would have to be rather low in order for this to be the case. For example if the flight elasticity is 0.3, then the price elasticity would have to be at least 5.3 in order for this to be the case, while if flight elasticity is 0.1, then the price elasticity would have to be at least 2.51. 12 Proposition 1d: It is optimal for the airline to operate a hub-and-spoke network when e-a- -> 11 25.11 . Proof: See Proof 1 in the Appendix. The interesting aspect is that this condition is the opposite of the condition in Proposition 1c. This means that the airline will choose the network with the largest number of flights. Given no differences in marginal damage between flights, this also means that the airline will choose the network with the highest environmental damages. Nonsymmetric equilibrium It is easy to extend the propositions to the nonsymmetric case, although the exact interpretation of them is more complicated. Suppose that hihjFF hihj ¹< ; in the hub- and-spoke network. A crucial difference between this case and the symmetric case is then that the number of flights is the same at the other leg airport hi . In this extreme case, the only effect on this connection is an increased load factor. We can now establish the following propositions. Proposition 2a: The total number of flights and the number of flights at leg airport j is higher under the point-to-point network if 0211 1 1 1211 1 12 )()( > W W+- W W+=Y a-e-a- hjhj . Proof: From the equilibrium levels of flights in (5) and (15), and using (19) we have that Proposition 2a is true if: 0221)1( 1 1 121 1 12 )()( > W W+- W W+ a-e-a- Phj hj P hj hj FF , since Hhi P hi FF = . The difference between the symmetric and non-symmetric equilibrium is the demand- shift parameters. However, as in the symmetric case, the elasticities and the demand shift parameters will affect the airline's choice of network. We therefore have the following proposition. 13 Proposition 2b: It is optimal for the airline to operate a hub-and-spoke network when 0211 1 1 1211 1 12 )()( < W W+- W W+=Y a-e-a- hjhj . Proof: The proof is similar to the proof of proposition 1d (using the result of proposition 2a). Again, an airline will choose the network with the largest number of flights and, given the assumptions about the damage function, the highest environmental damages. In Table 1 we present the level of the price elasticity where Y is approximately equal to zero (i.e. where total traffic and profits are equal between the networks) for different levels of the demand shift parameter and the flight elasticity.8 We then see that when 12W is larger than hjW , total traffic is higher under a point-to-point network for most cases.9 Furthermore, by looking at the case when the demand shift parameters are equal it is also easy to make a comparison with the symmetric equilibrium. Not surprisingly the critical level of the price elasticity is lower in this case, and the reason for this is of course that in the nonsymmetric case the flights from airport hi are the same in both networks. Table 1. Critical levels of the price elasticity. Demand shift parameters, hjW W 12 Flight elasticity, a Value of price elasticity, e, where 0»Y 0.5 0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 1.29 / 1.81 / 3.08 / 6.01 0.75 0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 1.24 / 1.65 / 2.59 / 4.40 1 0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 1.21 / 1.55 / 2.27 / 3.40 1.5 0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 1.17 / 1.43 / 1.90 / 2.40 2 0.1 / 0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 1.14 / 1.35 / 1.69 / 1.96 Finally, for the hub airport, it is easy to establish a similar condition as for the symmetric case, but where the difference in flights between the networks is low when 12W is large compared to hjW . 8 Note that Y is always increasing in the price elasticity, e. 9 Given that city h is the hub airport, it is more likely that the demand shift parameter hjW is larger than 12W , since these parameters in a sense measure the economic activity (income) in the different cities. 14 5. Duopoly market and environmental taxation After deregulation, airlines now face competition on many routes. One interesting problem is then how an optimal environmental tax should be designed under competition. We apply a Cournot duopoly model where each airline simultaneously maximises its profit with respect to passengers and flights. Previous research on environmental taxation in duopoly models has focused on single product oligopolies (see e.g. Carlsson 2000, Simpson 1995). The problem with an analysis of multiproduct oligopolies is especially to determine conditions for stability of the equilibrium, and to derive the comparative statics. Here we use the conditions for stability derived by Zhang and Zhang (1996). There have been some papers on multiproduct oligopolies in the case of aviation markets (Brueckner and Spiller 1991 and Oum et al. 1995). However, in those papers the multiproduct nature of the model is that an airline operates a network where travel on each city-pair market is seen as a single product, and where each product (market) is possibly related through the cost function. In our model, the two products, passengers and flights, are related through the demand function. The inverse market demand is a function of total number of passengers, 21 qqQ += , where iq is airline i’s number of passengers, and total number of flights, 21 ffF += , where if is airline i’s number of flights. Consequently, passengers do not differentiate between the two airlines’ flights; they only care about total number of flights. The inverse market demand function is therefore s-bsW= QFP , and the profit for airline i is: [ ] iiii ftbqcFQP )(),( q+--=p ; 2,1=i . (20) In order to allow for differences between the airlines we impose an exogenous aircraft engine technology, which in turn affects the emissions from a particular flight. Emissions from a flight are equal to ii fq , and if 21 q=q then the airlines use the same technology. Each airline maximises its profit with respect to iq and if , given its rivals' choice of these variables, and the choice of iq and if is made simultaneously. First order conditions are therefore: 15 0)( = ¶ ¶+- i i q q PcP and 0=q-- ¶ ¶ i i i tbf Pq . (21) We assume that the regulator cannot differentiate the tax between the airlines, and that he maximises the following objective function: åòò -q+-= i iii Q F EDftCdzdxxzPW )(),( 0 0 , (22) by setting the environmental tax, t, where å q= i ii fE . Differentiating the objective function with respect to the tax, substituting in for b from the first order conditions in (21) and solving for t we have: 011 2 1 2 1 )()( = q b- s- +- +b- ¶ ¶= å å = = i i i i i i i dt df dt df F qQP dt dq cPF E Dt . (23) The resulting optimal tax is similar to an optimal tax for a single product duopoly (Carlsson 2000, Simpson 1995). The difference from a single product duopoly is that there are welfare effects from effects on both passengers and flights. However, the main problem is to determine the sign of the tax effect on the number of passengers and flights. In the single product oligopoly case, output of both firms must not necessarily be decreasing in the tax since the tax can shift production between firms. However, under the condition that marginal costs are increasing in the tax industry output will be decreasing in the tax (see Carlsson 2000). As we will see it is difficult to determine how the tax will affect the number of flights in this model. This implies that we do not know if the optimal tax is lower or higher than the marginal damage of flights. When determining the sign of the comparative statics we will use the stability condition for multiproduct oligopolies derived by Zhang and Zhang (1996). Let vector iX denote firm i's passengers and flights, and let )( jii XRX = denote firm i's reaction function. A sufficient condition for stability of the equilibrium point is then that for some matrix norm × , 16 1 2 1 2 2 1 < ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ pX R X R and 1 2 2 1 1 2 < ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ pX R X R ; ¥= ,2,1p . (24) This condition implies that the magnitude of the eigenvalues of the matrices )( 1 2 2 1 X R X R ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ and )( 2 1 1 2 X R X R ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ are less than unity (for a proof of the condition see Zhang and Zhang 1996).10 We will assume that the equilibrium is stable, and hence impose this condition on the reaction functions. Furthermore, note that the profit function has the following properties: 0p=p=p i fq i fq i qf jiiiii , 0

dga iii . Note that the matrix jiij RR is a triangular matrix, which means that the eigenvalues of ji i j RR are the entries on the main diagonal. The stability condition then implies that the diagonal elements all are less than unity, i.e. that 121 iii dca and 0=ib . Furthermore, since jiij RR is a triangular matrix, we have that aaa == 21 and ddd == 21 . Using (27) and (30) we can now calculate the effect of the tax on the number of passengers (see Proof 3 in the Appendix): 44 344 21434 21 positive j j qfj i qqi negative i i qfiii jjii raa dt dq D pq - D pq -= . (31) The first part on the right-hand side in (31), representing the own effect, is negative, while the second part, the strategic effect, is positive. Consequently, the effect of the tax on the individual airline's number of passengers is not determined. However, the effect on the total number of passengers is determined: 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2211 )1()1( D pq+ - D pq+ -= qfqqqfqq arar dt dQ < 0 if 1+ b b-s+ a-e- )(3221)(2 1 1 [ ] 2 3221 1 1 >+ a-e- è a-e- >+ 11 ) 2 3(21 Proof 2: Sign of elements in the derivative matrix of firm i's reaction function Firm 1's derivative matrix of the reaction function, equation (27), is: ( ) ú ú û ù ê ê ë é pp pp ú ú û ù ê ê ë é pp- p-p D -=PP D -= 11 11 11 11 11 1 2 2121 2121 1111 1111 11 ffqf fqqq qqqf fqffi ij i iiadjR úû ù êë é dg ba D -= ú ú û ù ê ê ë é pp+pp-pp+pp- pp-pppp-pp D -= 11 11 111111111 11111111 1 1 2 11 2111211121112111 2111211121112111 ffqqfqqfqfqqqqqf fffqfqffqffqqqffR Since 0,,, 1111 21211111 p=p fqqf , it follows directly that 0, 11 >ga . Further 01 =b since 11 2111 ffff p=p and 11 1121 fqfq p=p . Finally, i ii qPF Q q PQ Q q PF 21211 )1)(2)1(()1( )( --- b-b-+ss+s-b-=d )( )2)1)((1()1( 2221 -+s-bs-s-bb-=d - Q q Q q Q q FP iii The expression in the inner parenthesis can be written: )2)1)((()2)(1( 22 -+ss-bs-s-s+b Q q Q q Q q Q q Q q iiiii Q q Q q Q q Q q Q q Q q iiiiii s-+ss+bs++sbs-bs-bs+b 2))(1(2)1()(2)( 2222 Q q Q q Q q iii s-+ss+bs-b 2))(1()( 222 . This expression is negative, and consequently 01 >d , if s and b are sufficiently low. 23 Proof 3: Comparative statics for the duopoly market Using (27) and (30) the comparative statics for firm 1 can be written: ÷ ÷ ø ö ç ç è æ P ú ú û ù ê ê ë é pp- p-p D +P ú ú û ù ê ê ë é pp- p-p Dú ú û ù ê ê ë é úû ù êë é-= ú ú ú û ù ê ê ê ë é 1 111 11 1 2 222 22 211 11 11 11 1 1 1111 1111 2222 2222 11 t qqfq qfff t qqfq qfff fffq qfqq rr rr dc ba dt df dt dq Since, úû ù êë é q- = ú ú û ù ê ê ë é p p =P 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 tf tq t and úû ù êë é q- = ú ú û ù ê ê ë é p p =P 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 tf tq t , we have: ÷ ÷ ø ö ç ç è æ ú ú û ù ê ê ë é pq- pq D + ú ú û ù ê ê ë é pq- pq Dú ú û ù ê ê ë é úû ù êë é-= 1 1 1 1 12 2 2 2 211 11 11 11 1 11 11 22 22 11 qq qf qq qf fffq qfqq rr rr dc ba dt dX Finally, since 0, 11 =qfrb , we have: ú ú û ù ê ê ë é pq- pq Dúû ù êë é- ú ú û ù ê ê ë é pq-pq pq Dúû ù êë é-= 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 2 2 12 2 1 2 2 1 2 11 1 1 11 11 2222 22 1010 qq qf qqffqffq qfqq dc a rr r dc a dt dX Solving this yields (31) and (33).