EN POPULISTISK TIDSANDA? En kvantitativ studie om mainstream-partiers retoriska anpassningsstrategier i Västeuropa

Abstract

The rise of populist parties in Western Europe has sparked fears that mainstream parties will adopt populist rhetoric; a phenomenon referred to as “populist zeitgeist.” Yet, systematic evidence on this communicative contagion is limited. This study examines whether increases in populist vote share influence mainstream parties’ use of populist rhetoric in 14 Western European democracies between 1989 and 2019. I test three hypotheses derived from strategic party competition theory: (H1) rhetorical dismissal, (H2) rhetorical adversarial, and (H3) rhetorical accommodation. Using panel data from the V-Party dataset (V-Dem Institute), I estimate two multiple regression models, one change‐over‐election model and one level‐of‐election model, each controlling for time trends, opposition status, and country‐specific effects. Results consistently reveal no statistically significant effect of populist vote gains on mainstream parties’ populist rhetoric, supporting H1. This challenges the assumption of an universal rhetorical contagion and distinguishes between policy adaptation and rhetorical imitation. The findings suggest that rhetorical accommodation may carry strategic costs, such as diminished voter credibility or governing capacity. Future research should explore moderating variables like office-seeking incentives, media dynamics and national institutional contexts.