A Synthetic Assessment of the Gothenburg Congestion Charge

Abstract

This study adopts a quasi-experimental framework using the synthetic control method to examine the impact of the 2013 congestion tax implemented in Gothenburg. The study constructs a counterfactual for Gothenburg to estimate what air pollution and health outcomes would have been in the absence of the congestion charge. It also provides a new perspective on measuring environmental and health economic effects using a more appropriate counterfactual. It specifically measures these effects by analyzing nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels and asthma & chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalization rates. The study finds no evidence that the policy has significantly reduced air pollution or the incidence of respiratory disease.