EU-OPINION I TIDER AV KRIG I EUROPA En kvantitativ studie om hur attityder till EU och europeisk integration förändrats under krigstid.

Abstract

In the early morning of February 24th, 2022, Russian troops crossed the border to Ukraine which started the full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia. Even though the war does not directly involve the EU or member states of the union, it affects the lives of the European people. While previous research has established that general attitudes towards the European Union and European integration has changed in some countries within the Union since the start of the war, the question remains how attitudes towards EU and European integration has changed across EU. A second unanswered question is whether populations in Western and Eastern Europe have responded differently, leading to a potential divergence or convergence in attitudes. The theory ’Rally around the flag’ suggests that an outright war that border to EU will increase support for the political leadership in EU. Research argues that the difference in impact and threat between Eastern European countries and Western European countries, might divide the European people. This study aims to investigate how attitudes towards EU and European integration has changed within the EU, between the winter of 2021 till spring of 2022 after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine. By analysing the Special Eurobarometer before the war in the winter of 2021, and after Russia began their invasion of Ukraine in the spring of 2022, I can compare how attitudes towards EU and European integration has changed, and whether the gap in attitudes between the West and the East has declined or widened. Although this study does not aim to answer what the reason is for changes in attitudes, and therefore it does not test if the war is the reason to changes in attitudes. Results of my study shows a small increase in support for the EU and European integration, overall, in EU27, and that the West and East has become more similar in attitudes. However, the significance of the results does not indicate for significant changes in attitudes in most country cases.