BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY? En kvantitativ studie om sambandet mellan uppfattningar om hot och inställning till Nato, mot bakgrund av Rysslands invasion av Ukraina 2022

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has not only altered the security landscape in Europe but also raised questions about NATO. According to scholars, the war has contributed to great concerns about the future of Europe, about defense and safety. In addition, some scholars claim the war has also contributed to major shifts in individuals’ attitudes towards NATO. Previous research examining attitudes towards various foreign policy issues, including NATO, has predominantly been conducted in the United States and more often from the perspective of the political elite. In contrast to prior research, this study adopts an individual-centric approach, investigating attitudes towards NATO in Europe. Most previous studies in this field have been focused on individual preferences and individuals’ political background as explaining factors. More recently, scholars have focused on the impact of international crises and in a few cases on the effect of threat perceptions, which in most cases have been studied towards the EU rather than NATO. This study aims to investigate the relationship between threat perceptions and attitudes towards NATO on the individual level in fourteen European countries, in the context of the war in Ukraine. The study was conducted with quantitative analysis and the results indicate that over time the sense of threat, from aggressors such as Russia or a potential military invasion, has increased among Europeans, and contributed to a more positive view of NATO. In conclusion, this study has found yet another explaining factor to individuals' attitude towards NATO.