Vilket gap-mått är bäst lämpat vid inflationsprognoser?-En empirisk studie
Abstract
To forcast inflation is an important part of the Central bank’s role. The aim with this thesis is to study if the unemployment gap is a better measure than the GDP-gap when it comes to forcasting inflation. Our theoretical framework builds on the theory of the Phillipscurve and Okun’s law. We are using quarterly data from period 1993 to 2016. The GDP-gap is estimated with two different methods, the one-sided HP-filter and linear regression model. A directly forcast is used with a forcast horizon of one quarter, four quarters and eight quarters. The differences is marginal between the two methods, which makes it hard to draw a conclusion of which of the two methods are best suited. In our thesis, the unemployment-gap shows a generelly better result.
Degree
Student essay
Collections
View/ Open
Date
2017-07-03Author
Berntsson, Sofia
Muratovic, Mersiha
Keywords
inflation
BNP
arbetslöshet
prognostisering
autoregressivmodell
Phillipskurvan
Okuns lag
HP-filter
linjärregression
trend
gap-mått
Series/Report no.
201707:38
Uppsats
Language
swe