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dc.contributor.authorHibbs, Douglas A.
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-24T10:18:56Z
dc.date.available2011-06-24T10:18:56Z
dc.date.issued2006
dc.identifier.issn1653-3895
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2077/25800
dc.description.abstractIn this paper I apply the Bread and Peace model of voting in US presidential elections to analyze the sources of George W. Bush’s narrow re-election victory in 2004. The aggregate election outcome is readily explained by the model’s objectively measured political-economic fundamentals – no appeal need be made to arbitrarily coded count, trend or dummy variables. The results imply that the 2004 election turned mainly on weighted-average growth over the term of per capita real disposable personal income. The war in Iraq, which has escalated dramatically in political relevance since the 2004 contest, had a relatively small impact on the election result, probably depressing Bush’s two-party vote share by less than a half percentage point.sv
dc.language.isoengsv
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCEFOS Working Paperssv
dc.relation.ispartofseries6sv
dc.titleThe Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Electionsv
dc.typeTextsv
dc.type.svepreportsv
dc.contributor.organizationCEFOSsv


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