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Implications of the ‘Bread and Peace’ Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election
Presidential election outcomes are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the term, and (2) cumulative US ...
The 2010 Midterm Election for the US House of Representatives
The number of House seats won by the president’s party at midterm elections is well explained by three pre-determined or exogenous variables: (1) the number of House seats won by the in-party at the previous on-year election, ...
Voting and the Macroeconomy
The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election
In this paper I apply the Bread and Peace model of voting in US presidential elections to analyze the sources of George W. Bush’s narrow re-election victory in 2004. The aggregate election outcome is readily explained by ...
Tax Toleration and Tax Evasion: Why Firms Enter the Unofficial Economy
In this paper we propose a model of how institutional benefits, taxation and government regulations affect the propensity of private firms to enter the unofficial economy. A central implication of the model is that ...